The Validation Playbook

Stage 2: Diagnose

Prove the problem is urgent and not already owned. Score the pain with evidence, not enthusiasm.

Stage 2 of 54 min read

The promise of this stage

By the end of Stage 2, you will have one prioritized problem with a clear risk map, a strong problem score, and a documented alternatives scan. You are not proving the idea is possible. You are proving it is worth the cost of building.

Stage 1 gave you candidates. Stage 2 chooses the one worth the build. This is where evidence gets sharp. Your goal is to be right enough to bet the next 90 days on this problem.

What You Will Build

Risk Map

Top assumptions ranked by evidence

Problem Scorecard

Pain scored on frequency, intensity, spend, workarounds

Alternatives Grid

Competitors, substitutes, and DIY mapped

These are the proof points that justify moving into Stage 3.

The Three Modules

Each module narrows the problem. If Module 1 is weak, the score becomes shaky. If Module 2 is soft, the scan loses value. Do them in order.

1Risk MapFind the one assumption that could kill the idea. Surface the risk that can erase months of work.Start →2Problem ProofProve the pain is frequent and costly. Score it so you stop solving mild annoyances.Start →3Alternatives ScanSee what people use instead. Map competitors, substitutes, and DIY workarounds.Start →

Stage Rules

Keep it honest

  • Test the riskiest assumption first, not the easiest.
  • Evidence beats optimism. A weak signal is still a signal.
  • Avoid ignoring DIY workarounds. They are your real competition.
  • If the score is low, narrow the problem or walk away.

Depth beats breadth here. One strong problem beats three vague ones.

Quick Reference

Evidence Standard

1. The riskiest assumption can be tested this month

2. The problem score is high with evidence

3. Alternatives leave a clear gap or underserved segment

No signals? Pause and fix the gap.

Pace

1. One risk test in the next two weeks

2. One full scorecard on your top problem

3. One alternatives scan with 3 direct + 3 substitute

Surface the risk, not the story.

Common traps

  • Testing what is easy instead of what is risky
  • Mistaking enthusiasm for evidence
  • Ignoring substitutes because they look informal
  • Believing "no competitors" means safety
  • Falling in love with a clever solution

What to ignore for now

Product polish, branding, pitch decks, acquisition channels, hiring, fundraising. Those moves depend on proof you do not yet have.

What Success Feels Like

By the end of this stage, the problem should feel narrower and more urgent. You should be able to say:

"This is the risk"

"This is the score"

"This is the gap"

Stage 2 is your filter. It protects you from building something the market already has or does not need.

Depth first, always.

Begin Module 1: Risk Map

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